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I lived in Port Moresby for 11 years and had to leave as I was attacked by 3 men who were after my car in my front yard. One had a machete and I lost my left hand when he tried to strike my head with it. I was well known and had many Papua New Guinean friends right up to the ex GG Sir Tore Lokoloko. Unfortunately some of these incidents do occur and I was extremely vigilant around my home, travelling at night and while at work. I hold no-one other than the 3 who attacked me responsible for the attack. This is a horror story as it took 14 operations to my left hand over 2 1/2 years before I finally recovered. But to label every negative story as one that would incense you is going a bit far.

Dear Carmen - thank you for posting this account of your time in Port Morseby. I too loved Port Morseby and lived there for 7 years until April this year. I worked in the law and justice program so the horror stories always found their way to our in-boxes. I loved the city, the harbor, the people and its vibrancy. Many of my friends felt likewise. My two adult children visited several times and loved POM too, choosing to stay in POM on one visits o they could experience everything POM could offer. I found a local driver and guides who gave them the best time possible. I had a couple of minor incidents during that time but was never hurt. Few expats ever are. The security industry and many expats have a lot to answer for Port Morseby's image. I learned so much culturally whilst i was there - one of the most lasting was how damaging it is for the people of a nation when other (almost always expats) people write negative stories about their country - whilst benefiting financially themselves. I hated the horror stories - they still incense me. I had my car stolen in Canberra and know of quite a few incidents where friends or family members have been hurt through crimes in Australia. No-one would dare write Australia off as a place to visit. Thank you for writing this and enjoy the rest of your time there.

Terry you raise some very important points, but I cannot help but feel you have missed the main one. That is the enormous effort required to achieve political, social and economic stability in a diverse post conflict state. That vibrancy of small town Malaysia not evident in rural Timor-Leste is not at all surprising to me. The last 12 years have been an entirely different journey for these two nations. While much more needs to be done, I think more credit could be afforded the government for its efforts post 2006: Re-building everything from scratch, healing a traumatised population, maintaining peace and investing in human resources to build the capacity of the civil service. All of this takes money, time, conviction and support. As you point out the money is there (and again we should celebrate the accumulation of the oil funds which is nothing short of miraculous in a newly established political culture). From what I have witnessed* so too is the conviction of government. The analysis considers domestic capacity improvements as part of the machinery required to install the desired improvements and outcomes in rural life. I guess my point is that the political will to quarantine revenues from resource sectors is never a given. Even a couple of billion USD in sovereign wealth seems like a titanic effort by anyone’s standards but more particularly in a new nation. The measures for relative development progress employed here seem narrow. Concrete floors, greater rights and freedoms, less sick families, bums on desks in classrooms with truly qualified (and paid) teachers can't possibly be captured in an image like this. Perhaps more time and support will overcome your disappointments, and more importantly see a greater transfer of benefits to the people of Timor-Leste. For an alternative journey down memory lane you may want to have a look at this <a href="http://pacificpolitics.com/slideshows/timor/" rel="nofollow">multimedia essay</a>. *FULL DISCLOSURE: The Pacific Institute of Public Policy (PiPP) is supporting the government of Timor-Leste on the Post 2015 Development Agenda. Dan McGarry, the author of the multimedia essay, also works at PiPP.

Really interesting insight into contemporary rural Timor Leste. I wonder how much development can come from businesses other than resource exploitation, though? What are your thoughts on this?

Hi David, I think your comment is a bit dismissive of the potential of complexity, and just wanted to come back to share my thoughts on your points: 1. Some of the best complexity work in development has utilised models AND participatory processes - a number of which I reference in my book, and have been involved in developing. IDS is doing some especially interesting work in this area, led by Danny Burns, which has informed, among other things, the Participate programme: http://www.ids.ac.uk/participate 2. Some of the most powerful applications of complexity thinking have come from the private sector - use of agent-based modelling in strategy, system dynamics in supply chain management, network analysis in marketing and social media, etc. When I worked with DFID to apply some of these approaches in their programme on wealth creation, most of the people who came on board to support the work had long experience in the private sector. 3. Complexity science is being utilised in the West - and there many examples of programmes and funding streams. It's not mainstream, granted. But neither is it non-existent. To take just one example, the OECD Science Group published this paper in 2009, and has continued to develop this area: http://www.oecd.org/science/sci-tech/43891980.pdf 4. You are right that Western countries didn't need complexity to help their development. But taking this to its logical conclusion leads one to a rather odd place (a) we should only be using things in development that worked in the West and (b) we shouldn't have any methodological or theoretical innovation that is specific to the challenges we face in development. Moreover, if you are going to apply this particular empirical criteria to the entirety of development policy and practice, what do you think would be left?

I do agree with Dame Kidu. Woman in politics has done a 2-steps back. During her time there was talk about creating seats for 22 woman reps. This was received with mixed feelings, yet there was good support from male MPs. The current parliament has three sitting female MPs. The situation for woman and girls may have stayed the same. But, the situation for woman leaders is NOT represented well by those three women MPs, don't you think? Those three woman leaders CAN change public opinion on woman leaders in the country. But they have failed miserably in this regard. I still have lots of respect for Dame Kidu. She showed how a woman can make a difference. She topped her career off with being the only opposition leader and the only member of the opposition. She stood against the idiocy of males. She is forever to be remembered as the one woman opposition. PNG needs woman like her.

The positives of the idea of complexity in development, I think, are largely therapeutic. We get so bound up in our Newtonian model of the universe, that we come to think of our billiard-ball "logic models" as actually real. We start to fetishise them, doing what they tell us, and ignore the real-world signals on the ground. The negative aspect of complexity is that it proffers yet another mechanistic model, to distract workers from the real interactions and information that's available through deep engagement with the operating environment, of which 99% can be summed in this word: people. The image, of workers scrawling equations on a blackboard, encapsulates this negative. 1. It suggests to aid workers that they respond to failure by building yet another layer of modelling, so that the workers interact yet more with models than with real people and with real situations. This is nirvana for researchers and for people in HQ, because models are their stock in trade, and if this approach to aid is furthered, the value of their stock goes up. 2. At the same time, private enterprise is moving AWAY from these mathematical models, and towards deeper engagements with their customers, suppliers, and partners as the best way to win. Oddly, this is what aid has always been fairly good at: engagement. It would be sad at this time if we started to lose our strengths in favour of approaches that other social institutions are abandoning (and with good reason, in my view.) 3. From a moral perspective, I think it's dubious to sell to the world's poor products (complexity, in this case) that the world's rich are so far refusing to buy. If we're going to see if this stuff works, let's experiment with the OECD middle class first, not with the poor in foreign lands. When I see complexity being used to ACTUALLY solve some of the West's manifest social problems, then I think it will be okay to export it. 4. There's also an empirical problem. If development means the social changes we have seen since the Enlightenment—public health, education, equality, democracy, wealth, increased life expectancy and so on—then we in the West have achieved these without "complexity thinking". The claim that "complexity thinking" is suddenly necessary for Africa requires explaining away a lot of empirical evidence (the entire history of development in Western countries to date) to justify why it's all of suddenly necessary for Mozambique.

Steven, glad it is of some clarity. It may need an update in light of the recent events/cases. Bal

Thank you for this interesting piece, particularly on the need to find culturally appropriate ways to improve gender equality in PNG. You mention the need for girls to see more women in decision-making positions. Indeed, an interesting finding from our work on service delivery in PNG (PEPE Project) is that the share of female teachers (based on Head Teachers and Grade 5 teachers) has doubled over the last decade; there are now more female Grade 5 teachers than male. Hopefully this improvement will bring about positive change in itself but I wonder if it could be leveraged more. Teachers are educated, large in number (23,000 in primary schools), widely dispersed throughout the country, and now strongly represented by women. Could the school curriculum incorporate more discussion and debate on societal change, cultural values, and their impact on the lives of mothers, sisters, and daughters? Could schools be supported to host events which bring the local community together to discuss these issues and raise awareness?

This is an insightful and important presentation by Dame Carol. I was recently in PNG. Have been working from the ground up, and a comment was sent to me by the International Red Cross reflecting much NGO work in PNG: "It was interesting to see the contrast in meeting someone like yourself working at ground level to enact change vs the 'large agencies' who are also trying to enact change. You seem to have a small footprint but big results as opposed to other international agencies that appear to have a large presence / budget but much smaller everyday effect on assisting those coping with sexual and other gender based violence." As an Aboriginal woman I work from a cultural base. Outside others don't get it.

Interesting observations Kolinio Meo considering the article had been written towards the end of 2013. It is now November, 2014 Post Fiji 2014 Election. The recent outcome of Fiji Auditor-General’s 2007-2013 Report just released gives us an inside view of what transpired Post 2006 coup up to 2013. The budget presented in 2013 for 2014 appears not to be included in the 2007-2013 Fiji Auditor Genral's report. The report is now showing clear evidence of alleged mis-spending and mis-appropriation of funds as per the Auditor General's report. I have attached some prelimiray links for your information below this comment as attachments. A Committee now tasked to look into this is led by Dr Biman Prasad M.P.. His comments alone is adequate to tell Fiji taxpayers and those with vested interests of the financial state of affairs Fiji has had post 2006 coup – 2014. It does not look promising for 2015 and beyond. Elisapeci Samanunu Links: <a href="http://www.fijileaks.com/home/khaiyums-aunty-milked-taxpayers-to-the-last-drop-regime-paid-nur-bano-ali-over-half-a-million-dollars-to-re-structure-rewa-cooperative-dairy-company-ltd" rel="nofollow">Khaiym's aunty milked taxpayers to the last drop</a>: Regime paid Nur Bano Ali's Aliz Pacific over HALF A MILLION DOLLARS to re-structure Rewa Dairy Company Ltd!~Fiji Leak 4/11/2014 <a href="http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=285417" rel="nofollow">Fiji Government ministers' salaries were paid through chartered accounting firm Aliz Pacific Limited from 2010</a> - Shalveen Chand <a href="http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=285517" rel="nofollow">Fiji Public Accounts Committee to sit for the first time to scrutinize report</a> - By NASIK SWAMI

The article is a well researched one that spells out clearly the political events that are occurring in PNG without takings sides. Keep it up Bal because most of the commentary on most social networks and pages are for one side or the other and readers are totally confused about who is telling the truth.