Comments

This is a very valid point, and as a consultant based in Fiji and working on a regional Pacific islands project I am experiencing first hand the challenges communicating via emails and online meetings. I would add that Pacific islands / Oceania are also disadvantaged in global negotiations that are mostly scheduled to fit the European or US time zones, the middle of the night in our region.

Not all naysayers on social media entirely believe Covid in PNG is a hoax, many common people believe that COVID does exist in PNG. Many just question the way things have been done so far due to growing frustration associated to other factors. The low number of testing has painted an unclear picture of the actual situation on the ground so far. By this stage, it is suspected by many Papua New Guineans that the virus has been widespread and many have already had experience with COVID like symptoms. Some have been unfortunate to lose their lives, all unrecorded. A majority have recovered from the virus hence perceive it as just another sickness so they question authority. Especially given that a huge sum of money was available for COVID operations but that seems to have vanished into thin air. And with the growing number of COVID cases the lack of trust grows too. Unfortunately, the disappointment is now been directed to Australia for the gesture of donating vaccines. Perhaps if the PNG government took the lead in sourcing the vaccines without Australian intervention it would have reduced suspicion. Despite the generous gesture many Papua New Guineans feel it suspicious. For noting that suspicion some Papua New Guineans have been subject to a mouthful from some Australians who seem to be trolling PNG groups arguing with Papua New Guineans speaking up. Facebook is perhaps not the best place to have a professional conversation as I have learnt but it proves to be the best place to learn what's happening in the world. Part of the raised suspicion is influenced by global movement against the use of experimental vaccines. Facebook has allowed users in PNG to read other news from around the world. And with the spike in COVID cases Australian media seems to have a better coverage of the situation here in PNG compared to PNG media. This observation has raised concerns about the possible underlying reason. What's new? In Australia there are protests about the vaccine rollout too.

Great article, thank you Sue. I and my team, Wantaim PNG, work in rural PNG. Working with local government partners in April 2020 we kicked off a province wide delivery of regular soap supplies and flyers with preventative measures. 12,000 households, 133,000 bars of soap. Being for the most part the only voice talking about COVID made it enormously challenging. The 8,000 vaccines from Australia is a welcome but small step. I despair about the likely uptake: how receptive can we expect folk to be when for the most part little info has reached them about COVID at all? I despair over the loss of the (ABC) short wave broadcast which was the platform to do that and so much more. It was a trusted (Australian!) voice reaching far into rural communities. Imagine. Thank you Sue for putting the case for more, so clearly.

Hi Joseph, Have you got any udpates on daily life in Moresby and PNG and how people are managing the rising cases on a social level? Thanks.

This is a very good question. It is difficult for us to control for other factors. Nonetheless, given the pronouncements about the expected impacts of the cable as it was being laid and then launched, we felt it was important to start this research. We will continue to monitor retail prices and any other relevant data that is available. Amanda

Thanks very much for the great and the marvellous job which has been done by our great grand chief Sir Michael Somare for the people of the independent state of Papua New Guinea.

Dear Rohan, Thank you for your comments. The Ethiopia analysis was done using a computable general equilibrium model designed to capture effects of policies and shocks across all economic sectors, factor markets (labor, capital...), households, etc. Our multi-market model analysis did not include these general equilibrium effects and we do not have immediate plans for a CGE analysis, in large part due to data limitations. General equilibrium results for PNG would likely vary considerably from those for Ethiopia, though, because of the very large role of the oil, natural gas and large farm agricultural export sectors in PNG's foreign exchange earnings and the overall economy. Modeling the behavior of these sectors and the responses of the PNG government will be crucial to the simulation results.

A correction to the post of 19 March: Mr D. Brian King continues as the Barrick Australia arbitrator. Vailala

Hello Emily, Xinshen, Paul and Peixun. This is a fascinating and important piece of research, even if somewhat sobering in light of COVID19. As you probably know, PNG has been experiencing foreign exchange rationing for the last 6 years or so. I am wondering in a PNG situation whether the distributional effects of an exchange rate devaluation would be similar to that of one of your co-author's papers [https://www.ifpri.org/publication/economic-implications-foreign-exchange-rationing-ethiopia-0] in Ethiopia - which found that the removal of rationing and subsequent devaluation would lead to an increase in real incomes for the urban poor of around 4%. Can the data you collected in this research be used to model a similar simulation on the distributional effects of removing FX rationing/creating convertibility in FX markets on incomes and calorie intake? do you have any plans to do this?

As citizen of Somaliland I feel proud of what the government did over 30 years of its existence. It is much better than many African-recognised countries in terms of peace building, economic boom and good governance.

Well written and pragmatic article. Good job and best of luck with your work!

Thanks Stephen for your response, I do enjoy reading the articles and the analysis provided by all the contributors to the Blog. I am sorry for using the harsher work of "failure" but I was drawing this from when I read that the key initiatives of the Forum (the Pacific Plan and the Framework for Pacific Regionalism) had failed. If this is so, then the whole raison d'etre of the Forum and its Secretariat have failed as they are not able to provide their members with the environment to progress the Leaders' vision for the Forum. We should also acknowledge that the region's narrative changes and has to be updated while a 2050 focus might be longer than some might suggest it is a valuable process for the countries and partners. One other matter, if Forum membership is providing so little value for the members then the decision on who held the position of Secretary-General would mean virtually nothing, hence, the position of the Micronesian countries would then not make any sense. So I think this recent round for the SG showed that there is still a lot of interest in the leadership that is shaping the future of the Forum and its Secretariat.